Wk 14 Games Not Betting Advice Locks

Wk 14 Game Not Betting Advice Locks

Welcome to Fantasy Island. Fantasy Football Edition, the DJ edition. That's right. We're gonna be talking our Vegas locks for week 14, going over our picks for week 13. You know, tee's over there blowing himself, you know what I mean? So again, you know, he thinks he's fucking the guy, but he won't put more than five bucks on the game ever.

Just saying it's bigger than a plankton dude. Don't be messing with my plank. Right. Hey, you know, right. I mean, there's millions of those things out there, so don't even, you know what I'm just saying? Billions. All right man. So we're gonna recap a little bit of last week. And again, looks like, you know, t sort of did, he did okay, right?

I mean, T went two for three, so that keeps him five for six all the time. I went two for three. I'm four for six, so I'm one behind cuz T had a perfect week one and Bombo. I think next week when you wrote your picks down, bro, just do the opposite dog. See what happens. Cause I do that sometimes I put down my picks and then I'm like, fuck.

I just picked the opposite when I called the book. I mean, you know, if I pretended to call the book, you know what I mean? I would tell 'em just the opposite. You know what I mean? But anyways, man. Yeah, no, our games last week, you know, again, it was the Detroit and the Jags. You know, T's the only guy who took Detroit there in that one, dolphins and Niners, T and myself took the fins and we got stuck in the Rs after the first play.

I was looking good though. 80 R touchdown pass from Tua. After that, he didn't do shit until the fourth quarter. Bombo was the only one on the right side of that. And then the Raiders and. The Chargers, myself and t were both on the right side of that. Bombo took the bolts. I don't know if you'll take the bolts again the rest of the year, but we'll see.

Going into this week, guys, we got three big games. We're gonna start with our first one. T, are you ready? Since you're Mr. Hot shit, we're gonna go ahead and let you go first. Put it out there. Jets at Bills, right? Jets are playing. They had that big win with white Mike last week. They didn't do so good, but he still threw it for over 300.

Had a couple picks late, tried to fucking bring 'em back late, and just came up short. Short, like you're plankton. So they're playing at the bills. I don't know about the weather yet, guys. I looked at it and it just said, partly cloudy and some wind, maybe like 10 to 12 mile an hour wind. But the bills are minus nine and a half at.

What do you think T jetted bills? Bills minus nine and a half. Yeah. This one is really hard for me because the bills are underperforming according to the bill standards, and the jets with white mike are really kind of coming on as of late. Nine and a half is actually a pretty high line for this game, I think.

I got it. This one's so tough. There's so many things to factor in, but I'm gonna go ahead and I'm gonna put my plankton out there and I'm gonna go ahead and say I like the bills in this one with the points. I just, I just don't see the jets really getting it done against the bills. I think the bills are just on another level from the Jets.

All right. I mean, and, and it makes sense. You know, I mean, like you said, there's so many points and you know, guys, if you want to talk through these points and we can all take a swing at it with you and help you make a decision, go for it. But, you know, I get it. T i I, this is a really tough game, especially with that number and that's why they put it there.

But I don't know, man. Bombo, you're up next. Fastball coming at you Jets. At Bills. Bills minus nine and a. Who you got baby? 98 miles an hour, right down the fucking middle. Who do you got? All right, so the last time we saw this matchup, we saw the Zach Wilson Jets beat the bills. and it was at home. And from what I've seen from the Jets, they're just not, I mean, they're an underdog in this game, but they're not a nine and a half point underdog to me.

I think they. They, if they're looking at film, they know where they made the mistakes and lost this last game against the Vikings. and it was right up to, I mean, it was like, you know, it was so close and this, it would do just a win for the Jets. Does more for the Jets going forward and this season and that organization than it does for the Bills to win a game.

They're supposed to win. I like the Jets just playing their hearts out, playing for Mike White. and I have the Jets plus nine and a half. Okay guys, I just went on the old, weather channel, weather report for Archard Park, New York, Sunday the 11th with a high of 39 rain showers in the morning with precipitation turning into a mixture of rain and snow in the afternoon.

Temps nearly steady in the mid to upper thirties, winds south to southeast, 10 to 15 miles. Chance of precipitation 60%, which is pretty good. So I'm sort of with you, man. I think the jets are still sort of built a little bit better for that ball control running kind of stuff, and their defense is smothering.

I think the bill's defense is great as well, but they're hurt. Their secondary is just getting healthy and I don't know how good this weather game will be for. . I'm gonna take the points and the jets with this one too, I think. But now here comes the entry, guys. Now we just threw another curve ball at you with that weather and now the scoring comes into factor, right?

The over and under on this game is 44.5. So remember we talked the over and under his Bo total combined scores at the end of the game, not the end of regulation at the end of the game. So those numbers have to go higher or lower than that number. So when there's a 0.5 in there and a half in there, I think that's what's referred to as the hook.

When there's a hook in there, it'll never land on that number. It'll never push, right? So think about that. If you had a flat number, like if the number was 44, you bet the over or the under. If it lands on 44, nobody wins. But because there's a hook on that thing, somebody's gonna win and somebody's gonna lose bombo 44 and a half over or under.

Give me the under after hearing that weather report, I know that Josh Allen has done it in Blizzards before with his arm, and I think Mike White hasn't seen a pass that he doesn't like, and he's willing to gun sling it. But you're right, the jets are made for clock control. You gotta keep the ball out of, the bill's hands.

You gotta keep it outta Josh Allen's hands. You have to establish yourself as. It basically do what you saw the Saints do against Tampa before they let Tom Brady go off this past Monday. and that's control the clock. Keep the score low score with big plays, and don't be afraid to turn it into a field goal contest.

And if that's what it comes down to, give me under 44 and a half, good goal, T 44 and a half over or under. I'm also gonna take the under on this one, but I do think that this is gonna be turning into a ball control running game and if Josh Allen has a chance of getting any points, I think it's gonna be with his legs and I look for him to be able to run in.

One of those touchdowns that he's possibly gonna get. But I don't see this going over 44 and a half. I just think with those weather conditions, it's gonna be kind of hard press for both teams to kind of find a rhythm in their throwing game. So gimme that under, you know, and those are the obvious things, and that's with the logical people will think and that's where they're gonna put their money.

Right guys? So obviously I'm going the. Just cuz it doesn't make any sense. You know what I mean? There's gonna be like a fourth quarter where all the, you know, Bumble you talk about like all these things, like the prime time thing with Tom Brady and how it's like the conspiracy stuff. How do they control the weather?

Cuz sometimes it just happens like in a game like this, the whole fourth quarter, everything will be quiet and still no air, no wind, no nothing. And these guys each throw for 200 yards in the fourth. I'm taking the over, give me over 44 and a half jets in the bills in the snow. 15 mile an hour wind. I don't give a shit.

All right. All right, let's go ahead and move on to our next game game. That planton out there. What are you talking about? My planktons again? I said putting that plankton back out there, don't we? Talking about that man. Alright, so what do I just need to hit on one and it'll turn to a shrimp. I mean, I mean, dude, I'm doing so you're making it sound like I don't hit on any, you made that comment on one of those shows, dude, just saying.

So if I hit again, can I just get my shrimp back? we'll, we'll have to figure out what's in between maybe an AMBA or something. All right. If I, if I have more wins than you this week, I get my shrimp back. That's our bet. Tampa at San F. Tom Brady pulled it out again in the last two minutes. Two touchdowns in the last two minutes last week on Monday night.

As soon as it turned. Eight o'clock. As Bombo mentioned, Bombo Tampa Bay at San Francisco with Brock Purdy, Brock Purdy minus three and a half. Who do you like? So I like Tampa in this Tom Brady Homecoming. coming over to San Francisco is hometown favorite team growing up, I think that, I think the nines will be okay as far as the games that they need to win in their division.

I think right now Tampa is ascending up and they're getting their groove. I think they're, to tell you the truth, I think they are. Get Mike Evans involved a little bit more away from really having their offense fire on all cylinders for fantasy purposes. The committee running back approach probably is killing owners out there of both of those guys, but it's gonna win football games.

Chris Godwin is just becoming lights out right now and they're giving you small doses of Scotty Miller Otten and. Gauge just to fill in those gaps. Most importantly, it's Tom Brady doing his thing, and this is divorce. Tom Brady still going at it, so give me Tampa covering the three and a half. All right, I get it.

And you threw the divorce, Tom Brady in there. So I got another question for you off topic a little bit. Bombo, you think he's getting some strange yet? He's Tom Brady. Gene. There's no way he can't, there's no way that he's not right. He got some stranger in. He's getting, maybe that's what he got a divorce to up nuts.

Maybe he got caught up. He's got the change for some strange, the saying, you know what I mean? All right. T Tampa Bay At San Francisco. San Francisco. Mine. It's three and a half at home. Who you liking?

You know what? Gimme San Francisco. I think this is gonna be again, a defensive battle. Both teams have great defenses. I just don't think that this Tampa offense though, is moving the ball that effectively. They struggled up until the very end against a very mediocre New Orleans Saints team. So I just don't like what I'm seeing out of this offense.

Then you gotta go with Purdy on the San Francisco side. And this guy was effective, he moved the ball. He, you know, that offense didn't skip a beat with Jimmy G out. So I really like what San Francisco's doing. Plus, like I said, in a, in a different segment. I really do like me some Robby Gold this week too.

So I really think that it's gonna be with the points and everything. Gimme San Francisco all day. No, and I can see how the novice would look at it like that. T you know. But the way I'm gonna break it down, man, is I'm gonna tell you something too, is, look, man, Frisco has the most suffocating defense in the nfl.

Tampa Bay struggled in New Orleans, is not a mediocre team. They're an above average defense. Their offense is mediocre, but that defense is pretty damn good too. And they got some dudes on that. Right. So they got some badass motherfuckers on that team, so their defense is pretty good too. So that game was weird, and I know Brady was what it was, and the script, you know, had him winning the game.

So, but I, I look at this game as it's gonna be a defensive battle, but I think I, I'm sort of with ut I think Brock Purdy, he's, he's decent enough to do what Jimmy G does, and I think that they're just gonna wear down Tampa's d Tampa's on a short week. They had a pretty big emotional win on Monday night, and the defense had to come through a couple times late in the game.

You know, they needed those three and outs to really get it going. So I think they're a little bit worn out. I think it's gonna show a little bit, I think by the fourth quarter, San Francisco and Christian McCaffrey should be running all over 'em. I'm taking Frisco minus a three and a half at home.

Okay, now that being said, two defensive teams. The over and under is reflecting it. The over and under is sitting at 37 and a half T 37 and a half over or under.

You know, I'm gonna take the safe route on this one, and I'm gonna say the under. and, and that's just because of the fact that I don't see this being a huge offensive outing for either team. Like you said, king, both of these teams, their defenses are top notch. You know, some of the top in the league especially, you know, the way that France goes, D's been playing as.

I just don't see Brady and Tampa scoring a ton, and I think it's gonna be just a, a more of a defensive battle. So yeah, give me the under. Oh, I thought you were gonna say that. You were gonna just take that number cuz your muffin was swollen, but you know, Hey, it is what it is. But Bombo 37 and a half over or.

Gonna take the safer route here and go exactly with what he said. Just defensive dog fight against, two teams that are fighting for seating right now in the playoffs. I think that San Francisco's gonna try to keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hands and I think Tom Brady is gonna rely on the run game and big plays for play action.

Just enough to get them in at least field goal range. just to get some points on the board. I see this going back and forth, going back to, to tees must start like a Robby Gold game. I see some kicking going on. Maybe a defensive touchdown here. but I just don't see it being a high scoring affair.

Just knowing how, how many gamers are on both side, on the defensive side of the ball for both of these teams and just how conservative they'll play it to not turn the ball over. Give me under 37 and half. All right. Right. I can see that too. I'm taking the over, I think Frisco's gonna score four touchdowns.

His scores gonna be 28 to 10, and Robbie Gold's gonna score four points. All right. So we're gonna go to our next game now. Cause I just didn't wanna keep, you know, throwing that at t. You know about my plankton and his kicker. Miami at the Chargers now Miami just came off a tough game against San Francisco to, it didn't look the best.

I think they pulled him at the end just to sort of save. At that point, the game was over. So you know what, then no need to get 'em fucking killed and you know, have 'em do that. Amazon Prime Day thing again. So they stayed here in la, tried to enjoy the weather, but unfortunately it was cold and it rained for them.

You know what I mean? So they're playing the Chargers. Chargers are really banged up defensively. You got a home dog here? Miami. Mine is three. Miami at the Chargers. Who do you like?

I like Miami on this one. and covering just because I think the chargers have a lot of pressure on 'em. It's just a must win for the Chargers and. Honestly, this team has had a bunch of must win situations since Justin Herbert's been there, and the Chargers that we think of as the Chargers right now as this offensive jugg nut that just needs to take that next step.

Well, we've seen two consecutive years where they've needed to take that next step, and when it comes down to it, they're gonna need help to get into the playoffs. It starts now at six and six. They're gonna have to win out in order to get into the playoffs. They have Kansas City who is the offensive juggernaut, and in their division

They have teams like Miami and all these other teams that are in the hunt that are just better than them. gimme Miami if they're healthy, firing on all cylinders at the Chargers house to beat 'em. I just don't think right now the Chargers have the firepower that everybody wishes they had from a fantasy perspective.

and the right now Miami's just a better. And, and I think that's a great point. You know what I mean? It really is. T Miami at the Chargers, Miami minus three. Who you like it and why? Oh, give me Miami for sure. And you know what, just to kind of, piggyback with what Bombo was saying, the one caveat that he threw out there was gimme Miami if they're healthy, to be honest with you, I'll take Miami even, bang.

Against this Charger team right now, yes. Chargers are banged up. They've been banged up all year long. I don't know how they've held it together with like duct tape and bubble gum and you know, gorilla Glue, whatever. But they're just not playing the way that they should be playing, even for being banged up as they are.

Miami hasn't had that diversity where they've come in and shit the bed two weeks in a row. Not that they shit the bed against Frisco. Frisco was just a better team that day, but Miami is really talented. They have way more talent out there, even banged up.

So gimme Miami all damn day long. Yeah. No, and I agree with that. You know, I think that, you know, everything you said was spot on. The chargers are so banged up. I have no ba that their defense can even ever pull out A game, can pull out a couple series to stop somebody, whether it be running or passing.

They just give up chunks, man and chunks. And I think Miami's a little salty for losing the way they did. I don't think they should have lost the way they did. And then the reality is before to have fumbled that ball, they were within a score and they knew that was their opportunity to beat them with Brock Purdy.

And they lost a golden opportunity. And I guarantee you that coaches is salty. The players are salt. and they're gonna truck these dudes, they're gonna track me. The chargers, they are just gonna keep pumping them and it's, it's gonna be bad. I really think it's gonna be a blowout.

And I got Miami just cruising and crushing them, but we'll see what happens.

I think the number should have been minus seven myself, but . But now we go to the biggest poll of the three's. Kind of weird. Because they're saying, obviously, you know, you know Herbert's gonna throw the ball 50 times in this game. So Herbert might even be a must start cause he just has to keep up. He's gonna throw for 300 just because I don't know, he'll throw the ball to, but 52 and a half points is the over and under on this thing.

T. Who do you like on that over and under thing?

You know what, I'm gonna go out there on a limb. I've been paying very conservative all segment long, but I'm gonna go ahead and take the over on this one. And because of the, what you just said there, king, I think Miami's just gonna come out and just smash 'em. My only fear with the over on this one is Miami gets so far ahead that they just kind of dial it back and just start, you know, shedding down.

Maybe even get waddle some bench time just to kind of take some load off of him cuz he is a little banged up. Maybe Tua gets pulled early again, just to be able to conserve him and, you know, shut him down. But really, I think Miami's just gonna steamroll this and gimme the over on this 1 52 and a half Bombo over or under Miami and the Chargers, gimme the over.

I think right now a, the Charger's secondary. I know they like to count Derwin James, but Derwin James is probably their best linebacker and the best person they have to try to stop the run, which they still can't do. Just because he is a really good gamer doesn't mean that he's doing anything to stop anyone in the passing game.

I think there's too many weapons for Miami and they're just gonna feast on that secondary. But at the same time, I think that the fin secondary can also be eaten up. Joshua Palmer for the Chargers has really come in and stepped into that wide receiver two role that Mike Williams has, abandoned due to injury.

Keenan Allen showed against the Raiders that he's gonna do all he can to be, Herbert's best target. And then you got Everett and Eckler out there. So I think that Herbert does many times as he throws the ball, he is going to get those guys the ball and they're gonna get a bunch of catches at the same.

they, I'll say it again. It is a must win for the Chargers and they need to score points. Same thing for the Dolphins. They're just a game back from the bills and the, and when you think about it, It's the bills, the powerhouse of the afc, the only team that might de thrown Casey.

Well, guess what? If the bills lose to White Mike and the Dolphins smash the Chargers, the Dolphins will now be in the driver's seat of the AFC East and potentially going for a higher seat than the playoffs. So the Dolphins have something to play for. The Chargers got something to play for. That's gonna lead to a lot more chances, a lot more opportunities and gambling.

As far as still airing the ball out, gimme the over 52 and a half. All right, I'm with you guys as well. I think that the chargers are gonna make it interesting, especially in the first half, and I think they're just gonna get worn out in the second half, like what happens? And they'll try to push again towards the end of the fourth quarter, but, I just think it's gonna be too much for 'em, and I got a big number out there, like a 35 to 28, 35 to 21, so I think they're gonna hit that number pretty easy.

So I think that's gonna go ahead and wrap us up for this week's Vegas locks. Again, T is the leader soon to be not the leader, but the reality is, is Bombo picks aren't that far. . So let's just keep going and keep track of this step throughout the rest of the year and see who the prognosticator really is For Sweet Tea Scoreboard.

For Bombo, I'm R W King. We are out.